A couple of caveats: The NFL is designed for teams to finish 8-8 and every year several do, but I think that predicting 8-8 is a cop out so I won't do it (with one exception, which you will see, the most confounding team.) Like I said above, I am a fan with my teams that I love (Steelers) and hate (Ravens, Cowboys) but these are head picks, not heart picks (I think.) Finally, this is being done in late-August, if there are major injuries in the pre-season games I reserve the right to make changes, or deny the whole mess. Away we go...
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3* Defending Super Bowl champs return almost all key players. NFL's best defense may be even more athletic with Lawrence Timmons filling Larry Foote's inside LB spot and addition of versatile rookie D-lineman Evander "Ziggy" Hood. Biggest loss is starting CB Bryant McFadden, but the secondary boasts the best safety tandem in the NFL, ageless nickel back DeShea Townsend and the overlooked Ike Taylor. Offensive line is still a concern, but should be improved if stays healthy. Look at the schedule, it is hard finding any losses there.
Baltimore Ravens 10-6 Not many improvements and some big losses, biggest may prove to be Rex Ryan. Bart Scott is gone, Ray Lewis is a year older. Ray is still a force against the run, but showed to be a liability on third down, especially late in the season. Joe Flacco got a lot of hype and had a good rookie record, but something tells me "sophmore slump" D Coordinators will be studying the three Pittsburgh losses on Flacco.
Cincinnati Bengals 6-10 This seems generous considering the rash of injuries they have already suffered and Hard Knocks teams don't seem to make the playoffs. Defense has the players and the right head coach to be very good. Running attack looks very weak and Carson Palmer hasn't been Carson Palmer in three years. He is banged up again, his best receiver is in the Pacific Northwest and he suddenly has no TE.
Cleveland Browns 3-13 Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson? Who cares? The talent around them is awful. Braylon Edwards will bounce back, but he is all there is. Jamal Lewis is looking like he hit the proverbial RB wall. Defense will give up points in bunches. Mangini, enjoy your two unsuccessful seasons in Cleveland.
AFC East
New England Patriots 12-4* Brady is back and with some new (used) weapons. I don't buy into that because Giselle's husband is back that it automatically means a return to 2007. This won't be an undefeated season, but the best QB in the NFL takes over an 11-5 team that added Fred Taylor on offense and several defensive upgrades including Leigh Bodden who will probably return to Pro Bowl form after being exiled in Detroit.
Miami Dolphins 9-7 The schedule is murder, last season was a shock, but I am not as pessimistic as Dol-fans that I have spoke with. The improvement last year was historic and maybe a little pre-mature as the playoff game with B-More showed. But, when Chad Pennington stays healthy he makes the playoff, everytime, look it up. Jason Taylor returns and joins the rejuvenatedJoey Porter at OLB. They don't need J.T. to be the J.T. of five years ago, just pretty good with Joey coming from other side. Getting to the QB wins games. And this organization is still run by Bill Parcells.
New York Jets 6-10 I know Favre screwed the pooch at the end of last year, but I blame his coach. Remember grey beard had them 8-3 and peaking. He was obviously hurt the last month and a half. Mangini stayed with him, even increasing his throwing load when they should be running. How valuable was Favre? Thomas Jones had a career year! Coach is upgraded and brings new life to the defense, but Kellen Clemens, Mark Sanchez? Not yet.
Buffalo Bills 5-11 They will start 3-2, despite Marshawn Lynch's three game suspension. T.O. will have is first melt down after week 5's home win over Cleveland where the Bills run it 40+ times and the player only has 3 catches for 22 yards. That will start a slide of 5 straight losses and a bye week rife with drama. You wanted him Buffalo, enjoy!
AFC South
Tennessee Titans 11-5* Albert Haynesworth leaving won't hurt as badly as some believe. I am a believer in Jeff Fisher, Kerry Collins always wins, love the run game and defense is nasty. Tough division, but not a big drop off from 2008.
Houston Texans 10-6~ Yes, I am drinking the Kool-Aid, this is the year that they finally get over the mediocre hump. Schaub stays healthy, best WR in the AFC, explosive RB in Steve Slaton, underrated TE, improving defense, means playoffs. Mario Williams will contend for defensive player of the year.
Indianopolis Colts 10-6~ Yep, third in the division. New coaches, older players, lost confidence in running game. Peyton Manning is great, but as great as he is he cannot turn Anthony Gonzalez into Marvin Harrison or Donald Brown into the rookie Edgerrin James was. Beginning of the end, wildcard berth but maybe the last post season appearance for a while for the NFL's most visible pitchman.
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 Very real possiblity that the Jags are 1-5 at the bye then go to Tennessee. Maurice Jones-Drew is nice, but what else is there? Torry Holt is a Hall of Famer but way past his prime. There is a reason no other team bid for his services. I think Cowher, Shanahan, Holmgren, Gruden, etc. are already on speed dial.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers 11-5* The most talented team top to bottom, just ask anyone. Weakest division in football. The return of Lights Out. The Bolts should fall out of bed with 10 wins...I will give them one more than that since they seem to sleep walk through half the regular season. Norv is still head coach, too so that means a maximum of one playoff win.
Oakland Raiders 5-11 wish I could find more wins for them, espically since the Cable Guy is already punching out subordinates (allegedly.) just not enough talent and Al Davis won't allow Jeff Garcia to win games as long as Jamarcus is healthy. (notice I said "healthy" and not "fit" or "in shape")
Denver Broncos 4-12 Team turmoil this off season. The only top notch player, Brandon Marshall doesn't want to play there without a new contract, if he does get the contract what incentive will he have to perform on a team that will be out of the playoffs by week 8. Look at the schedule and tell me there isn't a good chance of a 1-9 start. Oh yeah, the defense will suck again.
Kansas City Chiefs 3-13 two division wins and Cleveland at home. Bright side, Cassell to Bowe may put up Fantasy numbers.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings 10-6* Had them at 9-7 before Favre, give them one more win with Favre. Mangini sunk the Jets last year, not Favre. If Childress has the balls to bench the Hall of Famer if/when he gets hurt, it can only help the Vikes. Schedule is very favorable for a fast start, should be 5-0 when B-More comes to town, prepare for huge amounts of hype. Adrian Peterson is the best player in the NFL and the Defense is great.
Chicago Bears 10-6~ I am not a Jay Cutler fan first of all. I can't stand a below .500 QB trying to dictate to a franchise. Win some more games, until then, shut up. But, he has to make the offense better. Hester is improved as a receiver, Forte is the real deal and the defense is solid. Late game at home against Minnesota probably means a playoff berth.
Green Bay Packers 9-7 Really want to put them in the playoffs because the offense should be dynamic, but weak defense and iffy run game does not equal wins. Look at the late season schedule: Baltimore, at Chicago, at Pittsburgh, Seattle, at Arizona. Realistically they go 1-4 there and no playoffs. Aaron Rodgers could be the #1 Fantasy QB though, if it matters.
Detroit Lions 4-12 giving them 4 wins, only because I refuse to give any credence to pre-season....but, did you see them against Cleveland? Cleveland! The Browns looked like the '96 Niners! Oh boy, incredibly tough opening schedule, predicting first win week 8 coming off a bye at home against St. Louis.
NFC East
Ny Giants 10-6* They win the East because they have the fewest weakenesses. Lack of big play receivers is easier to overcome than other issues. Not a huge Eli fan, but love the running game. Defense is going to be even better than last year. Remember, NY was the best team in the NFC in the first half of the season in '08. Coughlin and company have had plenty of time to prepare for life without Plaxico, should be ok. Mario Manningham should be a fast riser. Don't put a lot of stock in the pre-season.
Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 don't care about Vick, he will not make an impact. Why do you need to take touches away from McNabb, Westbrook or Desean Jackson? So much noise over a 2nd or 3rd QB. Don't like the defense, LBs are hurt and thin in depth, you do not get rid of Hall of Famers in the secondary and get better; Brian Dawkins not being there is going to hurt more than people expect. last game of the season at Dallas will probably mean the division and a playoff spot, Big D gets revenge and ruins Eagle fan's year.
Washington Redskins 9-7 Iffy here on this pick. Defense should be outstanding, solid at every level, question is offense, specifically QB. Jason Campbell in a sink or swim season, can he get it done? If Portis stays healthy, they will compete for a Wild Card spot, if not forget it.
Dallas Cowboys 8-8 Yes, the cop-out prediction. Yes, I am picking the 'boys to finish last in the NFC East. Could be the best or worst pick of the year, that is how confounding they are. Romo is a stat compiler, not a winner. Head coach is kind of a joke. Hate the defense except for Ware. Could potentially go 12-4, but I am sticking with this, 8-8 13th straight year that Dallas is a non-factor.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints 10-6* This is the year, right? I seem to pick the Saints to win this division every year. Since this division has a different winner every year, Saints must be due. right? Defense should be improved, better corners, should give up less points. Offense should score 30 a game, hold teams to 27 and the Saints will win games. Drew Brees with a full complement of weapons will have a h-u-u-u-g-g-e year.
Atlanta Falcons 10-6~ Will not repeat last year's performance, but will still be solid. Michael Turner is a beast, the addition of Tony Gonzalez is big, but now Matty Ice has a first place schedule, not a last place. Road games at New England, Dallas, New York Giants are going to tell the tale just how "for real" the ATL is.
Carolina Panthers 7-9 Strictly based on the up-down nature of Carolina. Delhomme was given a big extension, what? They never seem to put two good years together. Love the running game, but hate that Steve Smith is already getting dinged.
Tampa Bay Bucs 4-12 This could even be generous. Not one aspect of this team looks strong. I guess the offensive line is ok. Ownership got rid of the wrong guy, Gruden should be there, not the MNF booth and the GM should have been gone.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals 11-5* Like San Diego in the AFC West, Arizona is benefitted by a horrible division. 5 wins will come from the division, meaning the Cards need to basically average the rest of the season to win the division and earn a playoff berth. I think they are better than that, great offense, underrated defense. Warner is due to miss some games, but with all those weapons they will be fine even if/when the old man goes down.
Seattle Seahawks 9-7 Improved for sure after the injury disaster last year. No drop off with the new coach. Running game is still unsettled. Lackluster last year and they improved by signing over the hill Edgerrin and cutting T.J. Duckett? A healthy Hasselbeck is worth double the wins from a year ago. Aaron Curry adds to a deep LB corps.
San Francisco 49ers 6-10 Wish I could give them more wins because I like and respect Singletary and what he is trying to get done there. In the NFL you need good QB play, Shaun Hill, Alex Smith? C'mon man! D will give up too many points for the Frank Gore offense to contend. Patrick Willis is the NFC's best LB, though.
St. Louis Rams 3-13 will compete with the triad of terrible teams in the AFC West for worst team in the NFL. Steven Jackson led the NFL in total yards per game last year. He will be playing on his own again this year. When was the last time that added a player that made an impact?
Playoffs:
wild card: San Diego over IndianapolisTennessee over Houston
Philadelphia over Chicago
Atlanta over Minnesota
Divisional: Pittsburgh over Tennnessee
San Diego over New England
New Orleans over Philadelphia
Arizona over Atlanta
Conference: Pittsburgh over San Diego
New Orleans over Arizona
Super Bowl: Pittsburgh over New Orleans
League MVP: Drew Brees
Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson
Defensive Player of the Year: Mario Williams
